The losses of the world economy due to the tourist recession are calculated

The coronavirus pandemic, which swept the world in early 2020, has been a roller coaster ride for the global economy. What started out as a local Chinese threat had already turned into a global market loss at the end of March, the highest since 2008. Everyone from small businesses to large businesses, from small businesses to large businesses, from small to large entertainment services, was hit.

The tourism industry, along with the entertainment industry, is one of the main victims of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. However, if the entertainment industry has found a way out of the situation and has turned to the Internet platform, where it opened virtual institutions and allowed visitors to have fun, and find more online casino games, and even somewhere to earn a little, then the tourism industry can not boast of this.

The sharp drop in international tourism

The sharp drop in international tourism due to the pandemic could cost the world economy in 2020-2021, 4.8 trillion dollars. One of the reasons, according to CNN, is the lack of vaccines for developing countries.

A report released on June 30 by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) showed that this year alone will cost global GDP $ 1.7 to $ 2.4 trillion, more than expected. in the worst projections of last year. According to the study conducted with the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), around 60% of the losses will come from developing countries.

“A rebound in international tourism is expected in the second half of this year, but the UNCTAD report still projects losses of $ 1.7 trillion to $ 2.4 trillion in 2021 compared to 2019,” the report said. experts.

The report presents possible scenarios for the development of the situation. Under the most pessimistic scenario, the number of international trips would decrease by 75% this year. In this case, the tourism sector will lose $ 948 billion and the global GDP will suffer a loss of $ 2.4 trillion.

The second scenario is based on an assumption of a 63% drop in international tourist arrivals. The third scenario is based on the fact that 75% fewer visits will be made in countries with low vaccination rates against the coronavirus, and in countries where a large part of the population has been vaccinated, the tourist flow will decrease by 37%. . In the second scenario, global GDP losses are projected at $ 1.7 trillion, and in the third scenario, at $ 1.8 trillion.

The authors of the report draw attention to the significant impact of mass vaccination on the tourism sector. In states with high immunization coverage, the economic losses will not be as great as in states where immunization is slow or has barely started. “The tourism sector is expected to recover faster in countries with high vaccination rates, such as France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States,” said experts.

However, they believe the industry will not reach pre-pandemic coronavirus levels until 2023 or even later. The report cites “travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, low traveler confidence and a poor economic environment” as the main obstacles to the industry’s development. “The world needs a global immunization effort that protects workers, mitigates negative social impacts and leads to strategic tourism decisions that take into account potential structural changes,” said the Acting Secretary-General of UNCTAD, Isabelle Durand.

Developing countries are hit hardest

In 2020, UNCTAD estimates that international tourism suffered $ 2.4 trillion in direct and indirect losses in global GDP due to the recession. Over 12 months, international tourist arrivals fell by 1 billion, or 73%. Developing countries have been particularly affected, where the flow of tourists has been reduced by around 60 to 80%.

The heaviest losses were recorded in Northeast and Southeast Asia, as well as in Oceania, North Africa and South Asia. At the same time, North America, Western Europe and the Caribbean have been less affected by the decline in tourism.

Turkey, Ecuador, South Africa, Maldives, Saint Lucia and much of Asia and Oceania have been hit hardest by the lack of tourists. While North America, Western Europe and the Caribbean hardly felt it at all.

According to the UNWTO, 60 to 80% fewer tourists will visit poor countries in 2020. Between 100 million and 120 million jobs, occupied by young people, women and informal workers, are at risk.

Low vaccination rates

The main obstacle to the recovery of the industry is considered to be the low vaccination rate. According to UNWTO Secretary General Zurab Pololikashvili, vaccination is crucial for economic recovery in developing countries, as it is the only way to protect people and relaunch tourism safely.

However, as data from the online publication Our World in Data shows, only ten percent of the world’s population are now fully immunized. Even in countries with high vaccination rates, like the UK, travel restrictions have not been lifted for fear of contracting the new ‘delta’ variant of the virus.

Despite the easing of restrictions and the resumption of travel in some parts of the world, the crisis is far from over. Half of the experts interviewed by the UNWTO believe that international tourism will return to 2019 levels at the earliest in five years.

As a possible solution to the problem at present, the organization suggests that countries better harmonize and relax border crossing requirements. For example, developing common standards for inexpensive and reliable coronavirus testing.

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